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Marcy Winograd, an antiwar candidate who waged spirited primary campaigns against U.S. Rep. Jane Harman in 2006 and 2010 — polling an eye-opening 41 percent of the vote against the wealthy nine-term congresswoman in the latter contest — is likely to find that the third time isn’t so charming when the polls close in California‘s 36th congressional district a few hours from now.
Winograd, a high school teacher and co-founder of the Los Angeles chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, finds herself a decided underdog against Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Secretary of State Debra Bowen, both of whom are Democrats, in today’s crowded special election to replace longtime Rep. Harman, who unexpectedly gave up her seat earlier this year to head the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
Despite the long odds against her, the 57-year-old Winograd remains something of a wild care in the race, enjoying higher name recognition than most of her opponents and a reservoir of good will among progressive Democrats as a result of her courageous challenges to Harman in previous elections.
Regarded by many as the most independent-minded, if not impressive, candidate in the race, Winograd — who doesn’t physically reside in the district — has repeatedly referred to frontrunners Hahn and Bowen as “Harman Lite.”
Some observers believe that Winograd clearly has the most highly-motivated constituency in the district, but it’s a question of how many of them will stick with her one more time.
Dan Adler, an entertainment executive who hired actor Sean Astin of “Lord of the Rings” fame as his campaign manager, is also running. He, too, is a Democrat.
There are also several Republicans in the field, including Redondo Beach Mayor Mike Gin and wealthy businessman Craig Huey. Huey, a first time candidate, has the largest war chest of anybody in the race, reportedly investing $500,000 of his own money in the campaign. None of Republicans, however, are expected to finish ahead of Bowen or Hahn in today’s special election to advance to the July 12 runoff.
The race also includes the Peace & Freedom Party’s Maria Montano, a little-known public school teacher, and the Libertarian Party’s Steve Collett, a certified public accountant who’s waging a serious campaign and has called for $200 billion in defense cuts.
The largely coastal district, which stretches from Venice to San Pedro and includes Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, Marina del Ray and Redondo Beach, leans heavily Democratic with 45 percent of its roughly 345,000 voters registered as Democrats. Only 27 percent of the district’s voters are registered Republican, with more than one out of every five voters in the district declining to state their party preference, according to the California Secretary of State’s office.
There are a total of 16 candidates in today’s special election, the first test of California’s newly-enacted Proposition 14, the controversial “top-two” system approved by the voters last June, in a congressional campaign. If, as expected, nobody receives 50 percent of the vote in today’s special election there will be a runoff of the top two candidates — regardless of party — on July 12.
I don’t get it. You state that Marcy is the “most independent-minded, if not impressive” and has “the most highly-motivated constituency”, and yet you claim that she will lose. I would think that typically spells a victory in a special election where only 10% of registered voters are likely to vote.
Good point, Troy. It all boils down to how many of her past supporters turn out today. Recent polls show Winograd trailing both Hahn and Bowen fairly substantially.