Democrat Pulls Ahead in NY’s 26th District, Tea Party’s Jack Davis Fades

Democrat Kathy Hochul has pulled ahead of Republican Jane Corwin in the closely-watched race for New York’s 26^th congressional district, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released on Saturday.

According to the poll, Hochul, who commands a much higher favorability rating than her GOP rival, holds a narrow 42 percent to 38 percent lead over Corwin in the Republican-leaning district. Tea Party candidate Jack Davis, a wealthy industrialist who has poured $2.65 million of his own money into the race, is running third at 12 percent.

Seven percent remain undecided while the Green Party’s Ian Murphy, a 32-year-old satirist, was favored by one percent of those polled.

Hochul, the Erie County clerk, had trailed Corwin by five points in a Siena poll conducted three weeks ago, but has benefited enormously by an all-out assault on her Republican rival’s support for the GOP’s House budget plan authored by Wisconsin’s Paul Ryan, which includes a dramatic overhaul of Medicare.  Hochul and Davis are both staunchly opposed to Ryan’s proposal.

Davis, whose support appears to have dropped significantly in the latest poll of 639 likely voters, received 23 percent in the earlier Siena survey, the result of a wave of negative television ads questioning his conservative credentials and reminding voters that the 78-year-old manufacturer was a former Democrat. The ads have been largely financed by outside groups, including the Sacramento-based Tea Party Express.

“With the eyes of the nation focusing on Western New York, Democrat Kathy Hochul has moved from trailing Republican Jane Corwin by five to leading by four points as independent Jack Davis has seen his support cut in half falling from twenty-three percent three weeks ago to only twelve percent today,” said Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute.

In a statement released with the latest poll results, Levy said that the 26^th district race remains highly competitive and that either candidate could emerge victorious in the special election.

When asked who they thought would win, 41 percent of those surveyed said Corwin while an identical 41 percent indicated Hochul, regardless of whom they personally supported, said Levy.

The election, he concluded, will hinge on turnout.

Tuesday’s special election is being held to replace former U.S. Rep. Chris Lee, who abruptly resigned from Congress earlier this year only hours after flirtatious messages and shirtless photographs of the married congressman appeared on a prominent Internet site.