The Wild Card: Maybe It’s Time to Take Rick Santorum Seriously

It seems that the race in Iowa has narrowed to a 3-way contest for first place between Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.   The winner of the caucuses on January 3 will get a bump, no doubt.  But the other two men will surely live to fight another day in New Hampshire and beyond.  The more interesting battle, you might actually say, is the race for fourth place.

Michele Bachmann is engaged in a final and desperate dash, crisscrossing the state and speaking to gatherings large and small.

The Bachmann campaign’s feverish pace suggests that they are keenly aware of the fact that it’s do-or-die for their candidate in the nation’s first caucuses.  Locked in a three-way tie for fourth with Texas governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, only one social conservative is likely to limp out of the Hawkeye state alive.

Bachmann and Perry have each taken their turn as frontrunner, only to fall back down to earth.

Perry is telling voters he wants to be the Tim Tebow of the Iowa caucuses, referencing the Denver Broncos quarterback who has become famous for his fourth quarter comebacks.  Unfortunately for Perry, after losing an early lead, the Broncos were stomped by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots yesterday.

Rick Santorum is the wild card.

“I’m counting on the people of Iowa to catch fire for me,” the former Pennsylvania senator said Thursday during the debate. “Iowans are beginning to respond.”

Santorum has never lead the pack, but he does have something unique going for him.  A recent Public Policy Polling survey showed his favorable rating at 52% and his unfavorable at 32%, the best positive gap of any GOP contender.

Because of the caucus system and the way people are forced to vote, Iowa may come down to second choices.  The social conservatives in the room will be forced to do that thing which they hate most.  They will be forced to compromise.  That’s because if a room has 10% support for Perry and 10% for Santorum — the delegates will have to realign in order to get one candidate over 15%.   If you don’t meet the viability threshold, you get no votes.

If Santorum maintains his ‘Mr. Nice Guy’ ratings and remains essentially untouched by the rest of the field, he could come out of Iowa with a surprise second or third place showing.