Zogby: Crist Leads by 7%, Wyllie Holding at 8%

Adrian Wyllie

Pollster John Zogby’s firm has released a new survey that shows Democrat Charlie Crist opening up a big 7 point lead in the Florida governor’s race.

The race, which has been neck and neck for months, appears to be breaking open with former Governor Crist now leading incumbent Governor Rick Scott 45% to 38%. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is polling an impressive 8% and 9% are undecided. Wyllie’s support has held surprisingly firm in recent polls, perhaps due in large part to the excessively negative tone of the campaign.

More on the survey results…

While Crist and Scott are about tied among men, Crist is benefiting strongly from a 13 point lead among women (47% to 34%). Crist also enjoys strong support from 18-29 year olds (45% to 30%) and 30-49 year olds (52% to 32%). Crist also leads among 50-64 year olds by 7 points (46% to 39%), while Scott is ahead among voters over 65 (48% to 37%). Crist has the support of 84% of Democrats and Scott holds 74% of Republicans. But Crist has a lead of 6 points among independents (37% to 31%). Wyllie’s strongest support comes from independents (14%), retirees (12%), and whites (11%).

Crist is behind Scott among white voters (43% – 39%), but more than makes up for that deficit with commanding leads among Hispanics (50% to 37%) and African Americans (82% to 6%). Scott is ahead in the GOP north (48% to 34%) but that is not enough to offset Crist’s commanding lead in the Democratic bastion of South Florida where Crist leads by 23 points (53% to 30%). Crist also leads in the important swing region known as the I-4 Corridor (47% to 38%).

It has been a long and intensely dirty campaign. Crist has been a conservative Republican, a moderate Republican, and independent, and now a Democrat. Scott formerly ran a company that convicted and fined for Medicare and Medicaid fraud. They both offered plenty of cannon fodder for campaign strategists and spinmeisters.