Regarded by some as an almost prohibitive favorite in the special election to replace now-Secretary of State John Kerry in the U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Edward Markey could be in for a much tougher race than anybody imagined.
According to a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,539 likely voters, the 36-year House veteran holds only a four-point lead against Republican Senate nominee Gabriel Gomez, a political neophyte.
Markey was favored by 44 percent of those polled while Gomez, a private equity financier and former U.S. Navy SEAL, was preferred by 40 percent.
Public Policy Polling is widely regarded as a Democratic-leaning polling firm.
According to the poll, which was conducted May 1-2, Markey — fresh from an 80,00-vote thrashing of fellow Congressman Stephen Lynch in Tuesday’s primary — trails the 47-year-old Gomez among independent voters by a margin of 47% to 31% and loses more than a fifth of the state’s Democratic voters to his Republican rival.
Former Sen. Scott Brown captured 64% of independents when he defeated Democratic Martha Coakley in the 2010 special election for the remainder of the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat.
While much of Gomez’s early support could simply be a result of the bounce he received following Tuesday’s three-cornered GOP primary, this race could get interesting — and quickly.
For those who may think the poll is a fluke, another poll released earlier this week shows a similarly tight contest between the two candidates. That poll, conducted by the Emerson College Polling Society, showed Markey with a fragile six point lead, 42% to 36%.
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